After the publication of Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized industry experts to introduce the situation in Beijing. Li Dong, Deputy Director of Equipment Industry Department and Director of Major Equipment Office, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Feng Xisheng, Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, Qudaokui, President of Shenyang Xinsong Company and Director of China Robot Industry Alliance, Song Xiaogang, Executive Director and Secretary-General of China Robot Industry Alliance, and Deputy Secretary-General of China Robot Industry Alliance Yao Zhiju explained the planning and development of robotics industry in detail.
In the process of dissolving the excess capacity of iron and steel, electrolytic aluminium, cement, flat glass, shipbuilding and other industries in the previous stage, people from all walks of life inside and outside the industry have proposed whether there is excess capacity in the robotic industry at present. At the same time, the mass media pay great attention to the development of robots in many provinces and cities. Compared with the industries with serious overcapacity, whether the robotics industry is developing too fast or not, there is also overcapacity.
It should be said that the analysis of whether an industry has excess capacity should first focus on supply and demand. The market demand prospects of the robot industry are full of expectations. It can be said that no one can accurately predict where the inflection point of the market demand for robots is. So in the market demand of industrial robots and service robots, along with the transition from traditional robots to modern robots, the demand for robots has been increasing every moment in the past five years. In 2015, the output of self-owned brands has increased by 21%, and the output of robots has increased by 31%, and most of them are customized. Rare inventory backlog, from the supply-demand relationship analysis, can predict future demand in the sustained expansion.
So what is the hidden concern of the development of robotics industry? At present, the output growth of robots is accompanied by the explosive growth of the number of enterprises. According to preliminary statistics, there are more than 800 enterprises involved in the production of robots, more than 200 of which are robot ontology manufacturing enterprises, most of which are mainly assembled and processed on behalf of others. They are at the low end of the industrial chain, with a low degree of industrial concentration and a small overall scale. At the same time, there are more than 40 industrial parks mainly for developing robots.
The supply capacity of high-end brand robots in local enterprises is seriously inadequate. According to statistics, foreign brands of chemicals transport enterprise china industrial robots with more than six axes account for 85% of the market, and future demand is mainly high-end robots with more than six axes. The key parts of the robot, that is, the reducer, the servo motor and the control system, have not yet been completely broken through. This part accounts for 70% of the value of the robot itself, and still depends on foreign countries.
In short, from the perspective of industrial supply, China’s supply capacity, especially high-end supply capacity, is far from meeting the growing market demand. Therefore, on the whole, it is not possible to conclude that China’s robot industry has overcapacity. In other words, there are also structural problems in the total development of China’s robotic industry, but the most prominent one is the structural problem in the development of robotic industry. We should prevent the low-end of high-end industries, avoid the low-level duplicate construction of resources, prevent heavy investment, light innovation and light personnel training. Tendency.
In the future, we should curb the trend of low-end development of high-end industries. Firstly, we should actively guide all regions and enterprises to develop robotic industry rationally and differently according to their own conditions and advantages, and guide policy funds and resource elements to concentrate on advantageous regions and enterprises, so as to avoid rushing up and duplicating low-level construction.
Second, we should vigorously cultivate and support leading enterprises to develop towards high-end. China should also have leading enterprises of high-end robot brands. We fully support the measures proposed by the Robot Industry Alliance to cultivate leading enterprises, and put forward in the planning to give full play to the leading role of leading enterprises. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also speeding up the implementation of the “Special Action Plan for the Cultivation and Promotion of Manufacturing Champions Enterprises”, and the demand for the cultivation of individual champions in the robotics industry is even more prominent.
Thirdly, efforts should be made to strengthen independent innovation. We should speed up the establishment of a national innovation center for robots, that is, integrating industry-wide resources, creating an innovative carrier combining government, industry, education and research, and strengthening the development of a new generation of robots, especially the robotics technology research and development marked by artificial intelligence and virtual reality.
Fourth, to establish and improve the standard and certification system for robots. At the end of last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Standards Committee jointly issued a guide for the construction of the national standardization system for intelligent manufacturing. Meanwhile, the standardization and quality improvement plan for equipment manufacturing industry should also be implemented. On the basis of the establishment of the National Robot Inspection and Evaluation Center, we should vigorously promote the improvement of the quality and reliability of robots and improve the construction of the robot inspection and certification system.
Fifth, we should intensify our efforts in personnel training, accelerate the implementation of the medium and long-term plan for the construction of equipment manufacturing personnel, and especially support the cultivation of craftsmen with craftsmanship spirit.
Finally, from the aspect of industry self-discipline, we hope to establish China Robot Association as soon as possible on the basis of promoting China Robot Industry Alliance. At the same time, efforts should be made to regulate the conditions of industrial robotics industry. In order to promote the healthy development of robotics industry and industry self-discipline.
The characteristics of robots can be simply summed up as “three highs”. That is, high technology intensity, high talent intensity and high capital intensity. This is a typical feature of the robotics industry.
In the past, the advantages of Chinese enterprises lie in low cost, labor-intensive and scale, which is a magic weapon for the development of Chinese enterprises. But in terms of the characteristics of robots, whether it is talent-intensive or capital-intensive, it has nothing to do with the advantages of traditional industries in the past.
Robots used to talk about industrial robots. According to the redefinition, robots are only a part of them. Nowadays, new and new generations of robots can cooperate and cooperate with each other. In addition, service robots, including medical treatment, service, family, rehabilitation and so on, also have a huge scope of robots. Great changes have taken place, of course, in terms of connotation. In the past, we thought that robotic devices with complex and high precision now include software, intelligence, sensor, big data, network, cloud and so on. Robots have become a new whole. Robots are in an era of great change.
Based on the above characteristics, where are the boards of Chinese robots? Traditional boards of robots can be summarized into three parts: first, in the core technology, the control system and the brain of robots. Compared with developed countries, there is a big gap between traditional boards, because most of the robotic enterprises in China, including our robots, buy them directly, which is a property right thing.
The second point is called core components, which are also the core support of robots, including motors, drives, high-precision reducers and so on. Most of this part of China now depends on imports, accounting for a very large proportion of the cost of robots, which may account for 60% to 70%. Although China is now making domestic parts, it is still invisible. To become a mainstream, there is still a long way to go.
Third, in the market, robots are a high-end equipment, high-end technology, but now in fact proves that our robotic products are facing the danger of high-end market marginalization. The problem of traditional robots may be that the core technology is hollow and the core components rely on foreign countries.
At present, we are in a critical period of development from tradition to the new generation of robots. The traditional boards may not be complemented yet. We are also facing new problems, not only the boards, but also the problems of catching up and competition. New robotic technologies, including intelligence, new materials, new driving systems, and so on. There needs to be a big competition with foreign countries, and this field may be more risky than our traditional boards.
Robots have entered a new era. It is not too big to have the problem of short board inversion in the traditional robotics field, because it is near the end. The key is the future. New robots in the trillion-dollar market, which covers technology, need innovation ability and capital ability, may be much larger than traditional robots.
The other is the integration of industry and technology, which is more risky. Once we fail to catch up with the new generation of robots, we will lose many years of opportunities chemicals transport enterprise china in the future, or we are in the wrong direction, the international transformation, we are still developing along the traditional road, others are doing the real machine “man”, we have to do machine equipment, which is the biggest risk.
In order to avoid this, we should focus on solving this problem in the 13th Five-Year Plan of Robot Industry Development, including how to innovate in R&D at the national level, how to build a national R&D and Innovation Center for robots, etc. The purpose is to concentrate resources and really strive for breakthroughs in the new generation of robots, otherwise the old shortcomings will not be filled. New shortboards are coming up again, and they will get bigger and bigger.
In addition to innovation, in the whole series of robots, from industrial robots to clean robots to mobile robots, to services, this is totally different from the past planning, the past planning is more focused on a certain product, this time we are the genealogy of robots, so the 13th Five-Year Plan is very comprehensive. .
In addition, in the future, our country will combine all kinds of superior enterprise resources. The state should focus on cultivating three leading enterprises with international competitiveness. This is also an important measure for China’s future robots to truly stand in the world’s advanced forests. Without this measure, the future competition will not lie in quantity but in quality. Quantity.
We firmly believe that through the development of the next five years, on the one hand, Chinese robots will develop very fast in the traditional type. On the other hand, in the new type of robots, we should seize the opportunity to develop new robots and develop our own standards in the next ten or twenty years during the period of major market opportunities. Through these measures, China’s robotics technology and industry will occupy an advanced position in the next five years.
In 2014, the global value of industrial robots was about $10.7 billion. According to China’s statistics, the global value of service robots in 2014 is about 6 billion US dollars. We judge that service robots belong to the early stage of industrialization.
From the Planning, we can see that the key point of robot development is actually the importance of industrial robots and service robots. As far as industrial robots are concerned, they are mainly to meet the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry, to improve quality and efficiency. That is to say, to achieve “Made in China 2025”, we should take intelligent manufacturing as the direction from a big manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country. So the task is very heavy.
In recent years, the market demand of service robots in China has been increasing. From the point of view of service robot, it mainly meets three levels. The first level is to meet the current social needs or social problems, such as providing for the aged, helping the elderly and helping the disabled. According to the data just released by the state, the proportion of the population over 60 years old in China is 16%, which is very large. Nowadays, there are many elderly people who have lost their independence and are empty nesters, which is a social need and a social problem we are facing. The second is to meet the major needs of our country, such as disaster relief, emergency rescue, seabed exploration, aerospace, and national defense, which belong to the major needs of our country. The third is that our country’s economic development has reached the present stage. At each stage, the living standards of residents should be improved to meet such needs as entertainment, education and intelligent home. For service robots, whether from social or national needs, this is why we provide service robots. Industrial robots and service robots should be developed equally, which is very important in the development of “13th Five-Year Plan” robots.
Artificial intelligence is a branch of computer science. Artificial intelligence is closely related to robots. If robots want to have intelligence, they must use artificial intelligence technology. We develop robots. We hope that the intelligent level of robots is getting higher and higher. It mainly depends on artificial intelligence technology. So artificial intelligence is inseparable from the development of robots.
In the future, we should support the development of robots, including the chemicals transport enterprise china development of artificial intelligence. In the 13th Five-Year Plan, there are requirements for the development of advanced robotic technology and intelligent robots. We hope to make some breakthroughs in application. To achieve this goal, we must vigorously develop robots and artificial intelligence technology.
“Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)” also proposed that the state will give some support. To establish an innovation center for robots, the state will also support it. At the same time, banks and funds will be encouraged to provide support for the development of robotics and robots. Therefore, the development of artificial intelligence and robots in the future will surely be supported by all aspects synchronously.
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